Before the merger that led to the All Progressives Congress (APC), I was a little bit sceptical and apprehensive about its success especially considering what the original merging entities ie the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and a faction of All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) had in common except the desire to form government.  Apart from many other reasons, I wondered whether there will ever be a level playing field or that a particular entity will have an upper hand. While many of us have applauded the successful registration of the APC as a very positive development that could potentially alter the political permutations in 2015, other pundits have raised relevant and potentially contentious issues worthy of some discussion. Many of such concerns relate to the public perception of the personalities of the two prominent leaders of the merger in the persons of Asiwaju Ahmed Tinubu and Maj.-Gen. Muhammadu  Buhari(retd). That the formation of the APC constitutes an important alteration of the political landscape is a fact that cannot be overemphasised, however many analysts are keenly watching how the internal relationships of these entities can be effectively managed to guarantee internal democracy and prevent centrifugal or cantankerous consequences.

Now let me state very clearly that the furious mood of the nation offers a great opportunity for any credible political platform to challenge the party in power. Never has there been a time that Nigerians have become this angry and disillusioned- may be only comparable to the Abacha days. The kind of anger I am referring to here is not the type where people are smouldering internally and can easily retreat to complacency . No. This is an anger that is palpable. You can literally touch  it as you walk on the streets. The teeming unemployed youths are roaming the streets almost hopelessly without knowing where a job or the next meal will come from. The most maddening part is that all these are happening side by side the indescribable profligacy and squandermania of the political elite, their cronies and appendages even domestic ones.  Many of our youths have almost given up on the government of the day and some of them have resorted to self-help.  There is now a gradual shift in the society’s idea of who is seen as a role model. Criminals, thugs, oil thieves and vandals have been given so much recognition that such illegitimate endeavours are becoming attractive options for our youth. God forbid! Resort to violence is now the fastest way of expressing any grievance whether justifiable or not. Simply, life in Nigeria is fast becoming nasty, brutish and short like the classical Hobbesian State. Can the new APC harness this anger on the streets and convert it to electoral value? How soon can they coordinate themselves and formulate alternative policies upon which Nigerians can be mobilised to dethrone current apostles of transactional politics, incompetent opportunism, extreme clientelism, competitive particularism and unbridled corruption?

But the APC itself comes with obvious carryovers. For instance, the ACN is clearly a dominant member of the new party judging from the fact that it is currently controlling six states. With a maverick politician as Senator Ahmed Bola Tinubu as its leader, the party had done very well in the South West region. The Asiwaju of Lagos as he is fondly called had also expanded the reach and influence of his platform beyond the South West in the last elections, capturing Edo State and effectively threatening Benue and Akwa Ibom States.  Today, the achievements of Governors Babatunde Fashola of Lagos State, Kayode Fayemi of Ekiti, Abiola Ajimobi of Oyo State and Adams Oshiomhole of Edo State have  portrayed Tinubu as the man who knows those who can do the job.  The last time I visited Ibadan, the capital of Oyo State, it was visible that the road infrastructure had improved a great deal.  However many of the successes of former ACN as a party have been unwittingly built around the personality of the Lion of Bourdillon himself rather than an enduring grassroots- based party structure. Sadly a regional toga still hangs around his neck and that of his former party. Now with the seeming predominance of the former ACN in the newly formed APC, that regional toga still remains. In a diverse country like Nigeria, political parties must strive to be defined by national outlook, spread and internal democracy. These traits were missing in the former ACN and many fear that they could infect the new APC.

Another concern is around the personality of General Muhamadu  Buhari who means many things to many people. But no one can challenge the fact that he has managed to cultivate for himself an impressive followership among the peasants popularly known as the talakawas in the Northern parts of Nigeria. It is so massive that some see it as a sort of ‘cult’. However this impressive grass-roots popularity is yet to be converted to electoral victory as the former military leader is said to be detested by the elite. In the 2011 elections, despite the impressive numbers that were flaunted by the leader of the then Congress for Progressives Change , the party could not even dislodge the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) to win Buhari’s home state, Katsina. It was alleged that the party’s candidate was resisted because many Northern politicians are opposed to Buhari’s public anticorruption stance. After the 2011 elections, CPC was able to capture only Nasarawa State not because of the popularity of the party per se, but partly due the intraparty disagreements between the doyen of Nasarawa Politics, the Sarkin Yaki of Keffi, Senator Abdulahi Adamu and his estranged political godson, former Governor Ali Akwe Doma. But for that disagreement, the CPC could not have won any state. It is important to note that the popularity of the CPC at that time could not extend beyond the northern region. Therefore, the same provincial perception of the ACN also plagued the CPC.  In addition, some segments of the Nigerian society rightly or wrongly associate General Buhari with extreme religious views due to his public comments and alleged reluctance in voicing sustained condemnation against rising  religious fundamentalism in the North.

Now with these two entities led by these individuals, how can they enjoy trust, first among one another and secondly, among Nigerians. When will they re-engineer the new party as a platform that has overcome the perceived inadequacies of the original platforms from where they are coming?  The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) may be in a self-inflicted crisis at the moment, but they still remain the party with the highest national spread in Nigeria. Any platform that will challenge and effectively oust them must demonstrate both national spread and superior policies. In short, with the negative sophistication of PDP, any party that will dethrone it must be nothing short of a mass movement.  The faces of APC at the moment are spent forces like Chief Tom Ikimi, regional champions like Bola Tinubu and Buhari and disgruntled politicians like Nasir el -Rufai. The frontline positions being occupied by these characters may turn out to be political liabilities. APC will have to rebrand urgently and build a mass movement if they want to present anything beyond sterile opposite in 2015. They must also begin to look beyond the usual personalities for a Presidential candidate in the next election. Clearly, the potential is there but whether they will be converted to tangible results that will result in the change Nigerians need remains a matter of conjecture.