The first batch of the 2015 general elections would be held in less than a month from now. This includes the Presidential and National Assembly elections slated for Saturday, 14th February, 2015.

Although the major dramatis personae – the Presidential Candidates of the political parties have consented to a violence-free process at a ceremony anchored by the former Secretary-General of the United Nations, Kofi Annan; and former Secretary-General of the Commonwealth, Emeka Anyaoku, yet there is palpable fear in the air.

The uncertainty is not only about whether the electoral process would not be marred by violence. It is more with whether the process would be allowed to run its full course. One can feel the pulse of the public in this regard. The pertinent question is: are we not heading for another inconclusive Presidential Election as was the case during the June 12, 1993 election? Although the scenario in 1993 is not on all fours with 2015 situation, the indices that could re-enact the 1993 doldrums abound within the polity.

While the interregnum in 1993 arose under a dictatorial military regime, the country at the moment is under a civil rule with a vertical federalism wherein all coercive power of state remains at the beck and call of the sitting President who is a candidate in the election. There are accusations from some quarters that the Directorate of State Services (DSS), for instance, has become partisan. There are accusations in the media that the sitting government contemplates an interim arrangement should it lose in the contest. As a possible counter measure the main opposition has been quoted in the media that it would form a parallel government should the elections be manipulated by the powers that be.

If the electoral tide, in the Presidential election, turns against the incumbent, as quite possible, would the electoral process be allowed to be consummated? Would the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) – Professor Attahiru Jega be allowed, as the Returning Officer, to announce the exact result as might turn out? Would he become another ‘Humphrey Nwosu’? Nwosu was the returning Officer in the 1993 ill-fated election who was disallowed from consummating the process almost at the last minute.

There are fears that the loser of the two major contending political parties could ignite a crisis of an unfathomable dimension, overtly or covertly, capable of truncating the process. Already the Governor of Kaduna State, Mallam Yero, is reported to have issued threat against the APC Candidate, Mallam Nasir el-Rufai and his supporters. Kaduna, the home state of the sitting Vice-President, Namadi Sambo, is among the hottest spots during elections. Any overt infraction thereof could spell disaster far beyond the borders of the state.

Already, the tone of the campaign by the APC across board, is that eligible voters should collect their PVC, decide their future by not only casting their votes but waiting to defend same. The bulk majority of the advocates of ‘change’ would surely heed this advice.

If violence sparks up as a result of any attempt to manipulate the will of the people as expressed at the polls, there is the possibility of the sitting government taking undue advantage of such to perpetuate itself beyond the cut-off date of 29th May, 2015. The probable permutation is simple – Section 305 of the 1999 constitution, as amended, on state of emergency might be brought to bear on the entire country. Even when the National Assembly, as currently constituted, is not likely to approve such a move, the challenge would be if and when a warlike scenario is created by the major political gladiators. There could be a breach of constitutionalism perpetrated in the cloak of another ‘principle of necessity’.

Since any such contraption would clearly engender illegality, it is unlikely the bulk majority of the populace would sit back and watch helplessly. The resultant effect could be more than a flipping crisis.

The electoral status of the majority of the population of the North Eastern states, now internally displaced persons (IDPs) who are most likely to be disenfranchised for no fault of theirs constitute a factor that could impair the elections. The IDPs are a victim of a mad insurgency and ineffectual handling by the Nigerian Nation State. If the IDPs are disenfranchised, it would be doubtful if the elections would generally be qualified to be tagged general elections within the teleological objective of the Constitution, nay the Electoral Act 2010. This could be a straw capable of being hung unto by the incumbent and used as an excuse not to cede power willingly in the event of a defeat. It could equally be a tool in the hands of the main opposition party if foul play pervades the electoral process.

Between the elections and the scheduled hand-over date of 29th May, 2015, avalanche of intrigues, some of which could be cocooned in legal tussles, might stretch the polity beyond limit. How Nigerians are able to weather the probable storm could mark a watershed in our National history. It could as well re-configure our envisaged future as a united Nation State.

Ajayi Olatunji Olowo, a legal practitioner writes from Abuja, Nigeria.

olaajayiolowo@yahoo.com

Views expressed are solely the author’s