The Jonathan-metricks of Fuel Subsidy Scam – Ogunyemi Bukola @zebbook

Published:13 Dec, 2012

The Jonathan-metricks of Fuel Subsidy Scam – Ogunyemi Bukola @zebbook

One of the factors that encouraged my failed attempt at studying Medicine at the University is my passionate dislike for mathematics. I literarily can’t stand numbers and the magic that comes with mathematical procedures. But President Goodluck Jonathan in his infinite capacity for the miraculous sent me back to school for extra classes in Basic Arithmetic on Tuesday 11th December when I read a report that the President had made a request to the National Assembly for a Supplementary amount of N161 billion as fuel subsidy payment for the remaining three weeks in this year as, according to him, the original N881 billion budgeted for that purpose for the whole of the year had been exhausted.

Now, there is no reason to suspect our dear President of falsehood, but the Coordinating Minister for the Economy and Minister of Finance, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala had on October 21 said the N888 billion allocated for subsidy payments in the 2012 budget should be enough to pay petroleum product importers and that government might not need supplementary appropriation for subsidy payments in 2012. So I thought maybe Mr. President had been misled, yet again, by his retinue of ineffective, over-paid aides into submitting a supplementary budget request for the wrong purpose, or maybe there was a typographic error on the request paper and Mr. Jonathan meant to ask for N16.1 billion, or N1.61 billion. Anyway, I brought out my calculator to crunch some numbers to see where lays the error.

Just so you know how big N161 billion is, at least in budgetary terms, consider how it compares to some selected allocations in the 2013 Budget Proposal presented by President Goodluck Jonathan to the National Assembly some weeks back:

The N161 billion for 3 weeks fuel subsidy is: almost twice the total allocation for Agriculture in 2013 (N81 billion times 2 = N162 billion); more than twice the total allocation for Power in 2013 (N74 billion times 2 = N148 billion); more than thrice the total allocation for Water Resources in 2013 (N47 billion times 3 = N141 billion); more than twice the capital allocation for Education in 2013 (N60 billion times 2 = N120 billion); almost thrice the capital allocation for Health in 2013 (N55 billion times 3 = N165 billion); more than the capital allocation for Works in 2013 (N151 billion); more than twice the total allocation for Niger Delta in 2013 (N63 billion times 2 = N126 billion).

The N161 billion for 3 weeks fuel subsidy is more than twice the Statutory Transfer for Universal Basic Education in 2013 (N72 billion times 2 = 144 billion); more than twice the Statutory Transfer for Niger-Delta Development Commission in 2013 (N57 billion times 2 = N114 billion), more than the Statutory Transfer for the National Assembly in 2013 (N150 billion). Indeed, the N161 billion for 3 weeks fuel subsidy is more than the sum total of the 2013 total allocation for Science and Technology (N31 billion), Mines and Steel (N13 billion), Environment (N21 billion), Lands and Housing (N24 billion); Aviation (N53 billion) (sum total = N141 billion).

 

Now that we know just how big the additional N161 billion Mr. President is asking for is, please follow me diligently as we go through the arithmetic of year 2012 fuel subsidy payments. Please note that some of the figures used here are approximates.

 

First let’s go through the basics:

There are 52 weeks in year 2012, out of which we have spent 49 weeks, with 3 weeks left.

So far, we have spent N881 billion on fuel subsidy for 49 weeks, which translates into about N18 billion per week, N2.6 billion per day, N107 million per hour, N1.8 million per minute.

According to Mr. President, we need an additional N161 billion to pay for fuel subsidy for the remaining 3 weeks in the year, which translates into about N53.7 billion per week, N7.7 billion per day, N319 million per hour, N5.3 million per minute.

 

How much is fuel subsidy?

On January 1st 2012 when the government of Goodluck Jonathan decided to completely remove subsidy on fuel, one litre of PMS sold for N141. After the OccupyNigeria nationwide protests and help from Labour Unions, government agreed to a partial subsidy regime, with PMS to sell for N97 per litre. This means that actual subsidy on one litre of PMS is N44 (N141 minus N97).

 

How much fuel can we subsidize with N881 billion?

How many litres of fuel can we subsidize with N881 billion at the rate of N44 subsidy per litre?

N881 billion divided by N44 = 20 billion litres.

So the federal government has used N881 billion to, benevolently, subsidize 20 billion litres of fuel between January and now, which puts consumption at 20 billion litres in 49 weeks, 408 million litres per week, N58 million litres per day, 2.5 million litres per hour.

 

How much fuel can we subsidize with N161 billion?

So how many litres of fuel can we subsidize with N161 billion at the rate of N44 subsidy per litre?

N161 billion divided by N44 = 3.7 billion litres.

So the federal government is going to use N161 billion to, benevolently, subsidize 3.7 billion litres of fuel between now and the end of the year, which puts projected consumption at 3.7 billion litres in 3 weeks, 1.2 billion litres per week, 174 million litres per day, 7.3 million litres per hour.

So government estimates that Nigerians are going to consume three times more fuel in the next three weeks than they did at any point during the past 49 weeks.

 

How much is fuel subsidy for the entire year?

If the National Assembly approves the N161 billion Fuel Subsidy Supplementary Budget request as made by Goodluck Jonathan, total amount spent on fuel subsidy in year 2012 would be:

Amount spent on fuel subsidy for 49 weeks (N881 billion) plus Amount to be spent on fuel subsidy for 3 weeks (N161 billion) = N1.042 trillion

N1.042 trillion spent on fuel subsidy in 52 weeks translates into about N20 billion per week, N2.85 billion per day, N119 million per hour, N2 million per minute.

 

How much fuel can we subsidize with N1.042 trillion?

So how many litres of fuel can we subsidize with N1.042 trillion at the rate of N44 subsidy per litre?

N1.042 trillion divided by N44 = 23.7 billion litres.

So the federal government is going to use N1.042 trillion to, benevolently, subsidize 23.7 billion litres of fuel for the whole of year 2012, which puts consumption at 23.7 billion litres in 52 weeks, 455 million litres per week, 65 million litres per day, 2.7 million litres per hour.

 

How much fuel do Nigerians actually consume per day?

The answer to this question depends on the source you consult. According to Mr. Enoch Kenawa, the Secretary of the Oil Marketers Association, it is 35 million litres per day; according to Mr. Reginald Stanley, the Executive Secretary of the Petroleum Products Pricing and Regulatory Agency (PPPRA), Nigeria imports 59 million litres of fuel per day, but Nigerians only consume 35 million litres, while the remaining 24 million litres are unaccounted for; while the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation puts national daily consumption figures between 30 and 33 million litres.

So we can safely assume Nigerians consume 35 million litres of fuel per day, which translates into about 245 million litres per week and about 13 billion litres for the entire year.

 

Subsidy figures based on national daily consumption:

If Nigerians consume 35 million litres of fuel per day, and government pays a subsidy of N44 on each litre:

Subsidy payment per day: 35 million litres times N44 = N1.54 billion per day

Subsidy payment per week: 35 million litres times N44 times 7 = N10.8 billion

Subsidy payment for 3 weeks: 35 million litres times N44 times 7 times 3 = N32.3 billion

Subsidy payment for 49 weeks: 35 million litres times N44 times 7 times 49 = N528 billion

Subsidy payment for a year: 35 million litres times N44 times times 365 = N562 billion

* Please note that the combined daily fuel productions of Nigeria’s four refineries, which are not subsidized, were ignored in this calculation to avoid complications.

* Also note that fuel was not subsidized for the first 3 weeks of year 2012.

 

Summary:

The federal government claims to have spent N881 on fuel subsidy for the past 49 weeks when in fact that actual amount should be N528 billion

The federal government proposes to spend N161 billion on fuel subsidy for the next 3 weeks when the actual amount should be N32.3 billion

If request for supplementary fund is granted, the federal government would spend a total of N1.042 trillion on fuel subsidy in year 2012 when the actual amount should be just about half of that (N562 billion).

The difference between government’s claims and actual amount is: N480 billion. Haven taken you through the rigours of how big, in budgetary terms, N161 billion is, I won’t take you through that stress for N480 billion. But do note that N480 billion is almost 3 times N161 billion.

Every single day in year 2012, for all of the 365 days in the year, including public holidays, and Sabbaath days which God asked us to keep holy, Goodluck Jonathan is short-changing Nigerians to the tune of N1.3 billion. N1.3 billion disappears from the coffers of the nation, goes into the pockets of the croonies of the criminals in power, and someone somewhere writes on that monumnetal fraud: Fuel Subsidy!

Every single hour in year 2012, N55 million disappears under the government of Goodluck Jonathan. Mr. President has installed an Automated Looting Machine into the cashware of the nation’s finances., he called it Fuel Subsidy. The machine dispenses N55 million every hour, almost N1 million per minute, round the clock. And that machine is about to get really busy in the next three weeks, if the National Assembly rubberstamps that N161 billion request.

Mr. President has declared an end of the year bonanza for his friends, it would cost the nation N161 billion.

 

Closing:

In closing, I bring you the words of Mr. Enoch Kenawa, the Secretary of the Oil Marketers Association via the Punch, he said: “We have said it continuously in the past that the N888bn fuel subsidy budget for 2012 was inadequate but the finance minister has been proving stubborn and deceiving Nigerians that the amount would be enough. We have been in this business for a long time and we know what the trends are. I am happy that our position has been justified. We are calling on the National Assembly to quickly pass request of the President so that supply of products can increase. Once the money is approved, Nigerians are assured of a good holiday period to ensure adequate supply of fuel during Christmas.”

There, brethren, is the handwriting on the wall, in bold letters for all to see.

 

Key Actors:

Oil Marketers: The bride of a looting regime; wants business to continue as usual.

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala: after the resurrection of her conscience, refused to release funds for the yuletide looting bonanza.

Diezani Alison-Madueke: Daddy’s girl, angry with her born again sister, reports her to big daddy.

Goodluck Jonathan: promised to create wealth, presents an end of the year, chop make I chop proposal to the National Assembly.

National Assembly: asking “what’s in this for us?”

Nigerians: Cheated, deceived, robbed and raped, suffering diligently, smiling cheerfully.

Ogunyemi Bukola (@zebbook): The writamatician, he advises all Nigerians to take classes in calculus as the knowledge of partial differentials may prove useful in the understanding of the 2013 version of the Jonathan-metricks of fuel subsidy scam

 

The End

  • Bolaji

    Excellent piece

  • *Sighs* The house is gradually getting divided against itself. Well that’s goodnews to me. GEJ promised to create wealth, he’s doing or about to do just that, but sadly only for himself and other cohorts. Our fate lies in the hands of the NASS on this matter. Will they be bought over? Answers to manifest shortly.
    Kudos @Zebbook for painstakingly painting these indices to the public, and @Omojuwa for providing this platform.
    Twitter: @Olalekanakogun.

  • @lordrooz

    The ‘machine’ has already started working! NASS approved! *sigh*

  • Idowu Adeniyi

    Guess it serves nigerians right, until we begin to think straight and not being sentimental on the choice of leadership, until we begin to think rationally else we will continue to suffer and smile.

  • where’s dis country heading to….God help the helpless.

  • parrot

    Jonathan should be shot. All these wimpers on social media will get us nowhere.

  • @oluwassledge

    Its really appalling and Sad to know d truth and can’t do anything.Maybe that’s y dey Kidnapp Madam’s Mother sef to bend her hand.SMH

  • Leonard

    Revolution,bloody revolution is all we need.

  • batarhe

    My head is spinning from seeing all those figures considering that I’m an Engineer that’s a lot of numbers, shame on Goodluck and Madueke and the Marketers

  • Okey bishop

    I feel sorry for this country.That is the much i can say for now.

  • Osoria

    That we have access to the truth, is enough weapon to arm ourselves against them in UNITY…we r not fools, just operessed. But their judgment is near, very close…great work bro.

  • Unless we change our voting criteria I.e Not being sentimental interms of choice of leadership we will soon witness our dooms day.

  • Aliyu gam

    GOOD LUCK NIGERIA.HAPPY NEW YEAR.

  • julius peters

    We all love to comment, and we all run from action.

  • A M Kolo

    This is wonderful calculus that exposes monumental corruption.

  • Alahjizaks

    Hahaha,end of the year FRESH-AIR….!

  • Imrana

    What a nation with all the financial watch dogs. What a leadership of a giant country full of promises of hope to the ever increasing hungered, unsecured, unemployed and unenterprising citizenry. The solution to Nigerian misdeamour is beyond the unrealistic free and fair election, above the scape goat style of sacrifices, far ahead of deceitful judicial unending legal proceedings etc etc. Nigerian most realise that this country belongs to more 160 million masses whom are deprived the privilage of power to realise their dreams of small scale businesses, secured environments without the fear of bombs or being kidnapped, sound and mordern health care without spending a lot to travel overseas or watch a dear one died of lack of good medical attention locally and or good and sound education for the leaders of tomorrow. A call for justice to even our unborn children.

  • Ade-Adedeji Adeyera

    I’m singing that old classic. Whoever remembers could join in.

    “Come and see Nigerian wonder; Come and see Nigerian wonder……”

  • adeola samuel

    Hmmmm! What a docile followers called citizens.Am ashamed to be counted as part of this generation

  • abkreal

    Hmm,honestly this country has evolved into a land full of opportunities for two sets of people.1.†?? oil-wealth type ????? 2.†?? IGR(internal generated revenue/real-estate.Don’t know who ??? trust in this nation.

  • mamman musa kolo

    Why are you critisise the President?, our problems is not the President, we the masis vote for him at the price of #50 in the first place, secondly our low-mekers we voted them to protect our intrest, but they are there busy protecting they are intrest,not ours, well we have to pray harder.

  • @Zebbook, you have said it all, as I read through your piece, my heart was filled with much anger, lots of people are suffering,dying everyday, the masses have all lost hope, while GEJ and his gang of thieves loot the treasury dry, we shouldn’t be suprised when subsidy payments for 2013 increases dramatically to over N2trillion. At the end of GEJ’s tenure, nigeria’s treasury would have been looted to the end and the country would be in severe debt!
    God bless you @Zebbook once again!

  • kale

    Wat on earth is wrong wit our leaders? Diz money can’t buy dem heaven except heel. They should’ve learnt frm late gen Abacha.

  • umar idris

    Well, wat more can i say. We need more of this fresh air. It servs us rite. We new who shld rule us but we believd in fresh air, lets nt forget he is da chosen one oh. I dnt regret cos i never wasted my vote for him. And i knw we wld continue to reciev dis fresh air until 2019.

  • Abacha

    Vote for me I beg. 2015. Make I calculate ‘am for una!!! No bi so you no sabi!

  • yomi

    We need a revolution to bring sanity to this country. The youth should stand up to put a stop to a cancer that has metastasize all over the place. Enough of talk talk let’s start purging this nation that God has blessed so much of the cancer that is eating us up.

  • Ijeoma

    I don’t believe this

  • Aiyeola oloye

    This calculation is mind blowing and its not new.All we need to do is to rise up and fight to win!
    Talking and analysing we lead to no where.The govt knows we are very good in talking and no fierce actions.
    The truth is…..we are very coward!
    This country will never change for good without lootocrats heads rolling!

  • beegwhale

    They won’t last cos they’re rushin it…their cup soon to full tho,’goodluck’ to them as they wallow in self-destruction! The money ‘d eventuali kill them,sure thing!

  • otto

    I feel raped! I hate nigeria! Pls the patriots can take several seats!

  • MTK

    Omo Nigeria ewo l’ewo? Which way my country?

  • Jub

    Its sad to read all dis figure been looted everyday but we arnt ready yet to stop it ourself. Why? We believe it will stop itself. Lie, it willnt stop and we will continue suffering and dying in our lots. Nigerians Stand up and fight 4 yours, ur children and ur unborn children. Let’s give them(idiots) a real Occupy Nigeria Come 2013 we dnt need to wait 4 any election period. Thanks to d person dat gave us dis great information.

  • Amadin Osamudiamen J P

    Salutations
    My head is spinning
    I have‘nt seen dat much figures since i wrote maths in waec.How can very few people hold a whole nation to ransome? So much money;
    Human want of a truth is insatiable

  • Are u kidding me?! I guess these figures are even more than when there was zero subsidy removal.

  • Fatima

    So, who do you think kidnapped our minister NOI’s mother. Is there a clue in all this?

  • alimas

    D facts r clear,d writing is boldly on d wall.
    Dis is outrageous & preposterous besides d fact dat is just atip of d iceberg cos if d fraud in other sectors is exposed …..!????!!! Don’t forget d borrowing proposals. Wat do we intend to do to save our children

  • rasaq

    Thank God,I didnt vote Fø????? him. So, Fø????? those who voted him into looting they should right their wrong!This could be Tahrir square style or through the ballot in 2015.LBT

  • @seunmike

    This figures are mindblowing!!! What the hell are Nigerians waiting for? Revolution now!!!!

  • Anas LG

    GOD BLESS NIGERIA!!!

  • mani

    He that invited the rain will surely be beaten by the rain

  • Nigerians let us take lead from our other African brothers Egypt & Lybia. Let’s actually “OCCUPY NIGERIA” without fear of intimidation. We ve suffered & smiled enough. Our unity is enough to fight these maggots called leaders b4 they devour d future of our children.

  • @xahido

    Another saga of lootitudes making use of the ALM(automated looting machine) isn’t dat perfect. Subsidy is the scam is the biggest scam of the decade and its proving to be effective and funds gulping than any other means of looting that’s y dis administration decide to make use of it to milk us dry. Let’s hope and pray for our saving grace which for now we don’t know who,what and where it is. Hope we find is soon,so that we can pit an end to dis solace of life. Mr bukky thanks for d headache o(plenty calculus) you don’t fall short of expectation bro.Maximum hailing for you.Bless

  • alcapoco

    I A????? an unemployed petroleum engineering graduate and any time I see or read about the frauds being done by our top govt officials, I feel like picking up harms and wiping them off. I have had enough and I believe that the masses will agree with me that it is time we take the future of this country into our own hands since our so called leaders/politicians have failed us in every way. Let’s bring on revolution for a better tomorrow. God bless the nigerian masses not its government.

  • Tblash

    Only God can deliver Nigerians from the most corrupt government since our independence. Someone should please also remind GEJ that PMS has become a scarce commodity for over 3months now and d product sells for btw N105 – N115 without anybody saying anything about this increase. The era of buying and paying what d pump displays as since ended as we now need to calculate using calculators. God will surely fight for us!!! I will not be surprised if the recent kidnapp of Okonjo Iweala’s mum is part of the script for this corruption?

    Nigerians, it is hightime we woke up from our slumber and fight fir the future of our children as ours are already messed up by this government!!!

  • francis

    Naija! Wen will all dis ish stop… God help us!

  • D-Wil

    I voted for Jonathan not PDP.

  • Muhammed

    May God save Nigeria. Why are some people so heartless, seeing Millions of their people wallowing in hunger, Millions homeless, Millions can’t afford hospital bills and are dying as a result, our so called leaders siphoned Billions of naira.
    Thanks to this good thinker for this analysis

  • Abdul

    When I read all these right ups and see the condition the masses are, I begin to think may be we Nigerians are being served what our hands put forward because we shamelessly gave our votes to a party which had shown its in competency for years and thought that a miracle would happen, oh no Nigerians we can’t expect mangos from an orange tree, sadly but surely the only way forward lies in revolution because as bad as it is now, when given the chance to vote, I fear Nigerians would make the same mistake again bcos history has shown that we don’t learn from our mistakes. So as I said revolution remains our best bet, that is if we can summon up the courage to act and not sit down cursing the people responsible for our predicament.

  • isoh

    Gud fresh air regime. Enjoy it while it lasts my country people. God bless Nigeria

  • There is no other viable option. We have to come out as we did in January but a peaceful protest will not work. We need to do the needful before we allow them to ruin this country completely. In the present state, any further delay will bring further tragedies and frustrations

  • Browny

    What can I say. Majority of us expected this from the “shoeless” man. At least I dnt vote for him so I’m not surprised. God help us!

  • ch.Dele Adeladun

    Very impartial and convincing piece. Without the Nigerian equivalent of the Arab Spring, noone will stop GEJ from ‘leading’ our beloved country to the gallows for summary execution

  • teslim

    This is a through breakdown of how jonathan and his cronnies loot the treasury everyday under the guise of subsidy. We need a revolution in this country. I rest my case!!!

  • Adeolu Ajobiewe

    Al Nigerians u voted 4 GEJ shld ofer dos of us u votd against him an apology. They ar wht Yoruba cald ‘Alakoba’ (One who invites trouble into the lif of his inocent neighbour.) I’m caling 4 1:1:13 to b d day of confesion 4 this serious sin of sentimental votin on f.b dat has brot teribl asault on sane senses, poverty nd even death to some. They shld txt their cofesn nd promis never 2 vot alng rligious/ ethnic lines again bt 4 d bst that can do d job. If we do this, we av protested nd we av movd 4ward in creatn a beta electorat. What do u say?

  • Thanks for any other informative site. Where else could I get that kind of information written in such an ideal way? I have a challenge that I’m simply now working on, and I have been at the glance out for such info.

  • Pretty nice post. I simply stumbled upon your blog and wanted to mention that I have really enjoyed surfing around your weblog posts. After all I will be subscribing for your feed and I am hoping you write once more soon!

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Former governor of Bayelsa State and All Progressives Congress candidate in the last governorship election in the state, Chief Timipre Sylva, has congratulated Governor Adams Oshiomhole of Edo State, Governor-Elect Godwin Obaseki, and the people of Edo State on the victory of APC at the 28 September governorship election.   In a congratulatory message on Friday in Yenagoa signed by his media adviser, Mr. Doifie Buokoribo, Sylva specially praised Oshiomhole for “a worthy cause to deliver a worthy successor to the...

FG to Pay States On Rehabilitated Roads – Fashola

The Federal Government is set to pay states that have used their resources to rehabilitate federal roads in their areas. Speaking Thursday in Katsina State, Minister of Power, Works, and Housing, Babatunde Raji Fashola, said President Muhammadu Buhari has assured to pay the debt. Fashola, who was speaking at the 22nd meeting of National Council of Works, said a committee was set up under his leadership and recommendations have been made to the government on...

Edo Elections: My View – Inibehe Effiong

It is clear from the just concluded gubernatorial election in Edo State that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has devised an intelligent policy in order to uphold the integrity of elections and the Card Reader. INEC has resorted to cancelling results from polling units where the total votes cast exceeded the total of voters accredited by the Card Reader. This practically leaves those opposed to credible elections with the aid of the Card Reader with a fait accompli. By...

Again, SSS Fails To Produce Dasuki In Court.

The Federal Government has again failed to produce the former National Security Adviser, Sambo Dasuki, before an Abuja High-Court for trial. Mr. Dasuki is accused of money laundering and corruption. He was charged along with five others before Justice Peter Affen, and was granted bail. He was re-arrested and kept in custody of the State Security since December 2015. Others being prosecuted along with the former NSA include a former Director of Finance in the Office of the NSA, Shuaibu Salisu, a...

Oil Prices Surge 6% After OPEC Cuts Production For First Time Since 2008

The world's leading oil nations - known as Opec - have struck a landmark deal at talks in Algeria that sees the countries agree to cut output and lift prices. Oversupply has been dogging the world's oil markets and hopes are that the first deal between the nations since 2008 will mark the end of the 'dumping' strategy previously favoured by the organisation's members. Immediately after the deal was agreed oil prices rose, with Brent Crude - the international benchmark -...